Sir John Bourn, head of the National Audit Office, reported today that the Government is on course to achieve a significant increase in the level of electricity generated from renewable sources - as part of its response to global warming - but a number of challenges remain to achieving its 10 per cent target for renewable energy by 2010. Pursuit of the target will result in costs for the consumer and taxpayer exceeding £1 billion a year by the end of the decade, which will increase the price of electricity by around 5 per cent.

To tackle climate change the Government is looking to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by some 60 per cent from current levels by 2050. Given the scale of the reduction it is implementing a variety of policy tools of which promoting renewable energy is only one. The Department of Trade and Industry has put in place a package of policies to encourage the development of different types of renewable energy, many of which would not be commercially viable without financial support. The core of the policy is the innovative Renewables Obligation, introduced in April 2002. This is a scheme designed to encourage greater electricity production from renewable sources by increasing the income renewable generators receive above and beyond the market price of electricity.

The Department has also made available capital grants to support offshore wind farms, and bioenergy power stations which generate electricity from fuel sources such as energy crops. It also provides research and development grants for those technologies which are not yet commercially viable, such as wave and tidal schemes.

The NAO’s main findings are:

• Two years after the introduction of the Renewables Obligation, the level of electricity supplied from eligible renewable sources was 2.4 per cent against a quota of 4.3 per cent.
• Despite shortfalls in the early years, the Department is on track to meet the 10 per cent target by the end of 2010 provided wholesale electricity prices remain at or around recent increased levels, and its responses to a series of challenges prove effective.
• The cost of reducing carbon dioxide emissions through the Renewables Obligation is currently significantly higher than other policy mechanisms which primarily incentivise energy efficiency. The Government has identified the need for a range of measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions including renewable energy and it is unlikely that other policy tools such as a carbon dioxide tax would yield the targeted level of renewable generation in the timescale required.
• The Renewables Obligation is a system which provides the same level of financial support for all eligible renewable projects. The Department adopted this approach to ensure that the most economic renewable energy projects are developed first, while minimising Government intervention in the market. A consequence is that some projects using the cheapest technologies (onshore wind and landfill gas) at the best sites receive more support from the Renewables Obligation than necessary to see them developed. The Department is looking at this issue for new sites in its current review of the Renewables Obligation.
• To aid the introduction of the Renewables Obligation, sites that still receive funding through the Department�s previous scheme to support renewables, were also included in the new scheme. An indirect consequence of their inclusion is the generation of income for the Exchequer, paid by the consumer through slightly higher electricity prices, which will accumulate to between £500 million and £1 billion by 2010.

Stability is needed to maintain investor confidence in the renewables sector which is a crucial factor in determining the effectiveness of the scheme. This has limited the Department’s ability to modify the scheme in the short term. The Department nevertheless needs to watch the balance between industry and consumer interests, and to consider factors, such as any reduction in the unit costs of renewable generation, which will influence the best way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
Sir John Bourn said today:

“The Renewables Obligation is increasing the level of renewable generation, and thus helping reduce carbon dioxide emissions, though at a price to the electricity consumer. The Department needs to keep track of the scheme’s progress in improving the commercial viability of renewable generation and ensure that consumers benefit from reductions in generation costs.”

Original press release: Department of Trade and Industry: Renewable Energy (UK National Audit Office)

BOULDER - On February 16, the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will take effect. Negotiated in 1997 and ratified by more than 100 nations (although not the United States), the agreement is a coordinated effort to limit emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases blamed for climate change. Nations that ratified the protocol commit to reducing emissions below 1990 levels by the period of 2008-2012, with higher-polluting nations facing more ambitious targets. The protocol also sets up a system of emissions trading to help nations meet their targets.

The protocol raises a number of important science and policy issues. These include the potential impacts of our changing climate, the extent to which the protocol will minimize climate change, additional steps that nations can take to reduce emissions, and how emissions of greenhouse gases can be tracked.

NCAR researchers are on the forefront of climate change research. By using some of the world’s most powerful supercomputers and analyzing worldwide data, they estimate how natural factors and human-induced changes to the atmosphere are affecting our climate, as well as how agreements such as Kyoto may affect global warming. They also are important contributors to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which provides assessments of climate science for policy makers worldwide.

Original press release: Tip sheet: Kyoto Protocol (The National Center for Atmosphereic Research)

A surprising link may exist between ocean fertility and air pollution over land, according to Georgia Institute of Technology research reported in the Feb. 16 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. The work provides new insight into the role that ocean fertility plays in the complex cycle involving carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in global warming.

When dust storms pass over industrialized areas, they can pick up sulfur dioxide, an acidic trace gas emitted from industrial facilities and power plants. As the dust storms move out over the ocean, the sulfur dioxide they carry lowers the pH (a measure of acidity and alkalinity) level of dust and transforms iron into a soluble form, said Nicholas Meskhidze, a postdoctoral fellow in Professor Athanasios Nenes’ group at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and lead author of the paper “Dust and Pollution: A Recipe for Enhanced Ocean Fertilization.”

This conversion is important because dissolved iron is a necessary micronutrient for phytoplankton - tiny aquatic plants that serve as food for fish and other marine organisms, and also reduce carbon dioxide levels in Earth’s atmosphere via photosynthesis. Phytoplankton carry out almost half of Earth’s photosynthesis even though they represent less than 1 percent of the planet’s biomass.

In research funded by the National Science Foundation, Meskhidze began studying dust storms three years ago under the guidance of William Chameides, Regents’ Professor and Smithgall Chair at Georgia Tech’s School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and co-author of the paper.

“I knew that large storms from the Gobi deserts in northern China and Mongolia could carry iron from the soil to remote regions of the northern Pacific Ocean, facilitating photosynthesis and carbon-dioxide uptake,” Meskhidze said. “But I was puzzled because the iron in desert dust is primarily hematite, a mineral that is insoluble in high-pH solutions such as seawater. So it’s not readily available to the plankton.”

Using data obtained in a flight over the study area, Meskhidze analyzed the chemistry of a dust storm that originated in the Gobi desert and passed over Shanghai before moving onto the northern Pacific Ocean. His discovery: When a high-concentration of sulfur dioxide mixed with the desert dust, it acidified the dust to a pH below 2 - the level needed for mineral iron to convert into a dissolved form that would be available to phytoplankton.

Expanding on this discovery, Meskhidze studied how variations in air pollution and mineral dust affect iron mobilization.

Obtaining in-flight data from two different Gobi-desert storms - one occurring on March 12, 2001, and the other on April 6, 2001 — Meskhidze analyzed the pollution content and then modeled the storms’ trajectory and chemical transformation over the North Pacific Ocean. Using satellite measurements, he determined whether there had been increased growth of phytoplankton in the ocean area where the storms passed.

The results were surprising, he said. Although the April storm was a large one, with three sources of dust colliding and traveling as far as the continental United States, there was no increased phytoplankton activity. Yet the March storm, albeit smaller, significantly boosted the production of phytoplankton.

The differing results can be attributed to the concentration of sulfur dioxide existing in dust storms, Meskhidze said. Large storms are highly alkaline because they contain a higher proportion of calcium carbonate. Thus, the amount of sulfur dioxide picked up from pollution is not enough to bring down the pH below 2.

“Although large storms can export vast amounts of mineral dust to the open ocean, the amount of sulfur dioxide required to acidify these large plumes and generate bioavailable iron is about five to 10 times higher than the average springtime concentrations of this pollutant found in industrialized areas of China,” Meskhidze explained. “Yet the percentage of soluble iron in small dust storms can be many orders of magnitude higher than large dust storms.”

So even though small storms are limited in the amount of dust they transport to the ocean and may not cause large plankton blooms, small storms still produce enough soluble iron to consistently feed phytoplankton and fertilize the ocean. This may be especially important for high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters, where phytoplankton production is limited because of a lack of iron.

Natural sources of sulfur dioxide, such as volcanic emissions and ocean production, may also cause iron mobilization and stimulate phytoplankton growth. Yet emissions from human-made sources normally represent a larger portion of the trace gas. Also, human-made emission sites may be closer to the storm’s course and have a stronger influence on it than natural sulfur dioxide, Meskhidze said.

This research deepens scientists’ understanding of the carbon cycle and climate change, he added.

“It appears that the recipe of adding pollution to mineral dust from East Asia may actually enhance ocean productivity and, in so doing, draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide and reduce global warming,” Chameides said.

“Thus, China’s current plans to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, which will have far-reaching benefits for the environment and health of the people of China, may have the unintended consequence of exacerbating global warming,” he added. “This is perhaps one more reason why we all need to get serious about reducing our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”

Original press release: Dust Storm Surprise: Pollution Can Convert Airborne Iron into Soluble Form Required for Phytoplankton Growth (Georgia Tech)

Gland, Switzerland - As the Kyoto Protocol enters into force, WWF, the global conservation organization, says countries need to take another nine steps to make the Protocol the success that the world needs to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

This danger level is recognized by the EU and other key players as a rise of the average global temperature of 2C above pre-industrial levels.

According to WWF, to keep global warming beneath that 2C ceiling industrialized countries must slash CO2 emissions by 80 per cent by mid-century, with global emissions cut by 50 per cent over the same period. Currently, the Kyoto Protocol asks industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.

“While it is a big step forward, the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol is just the first step in containing the threat of climate change,” said Jennifer Morgan, Director of WWF�s Global Climate Change Programme.

“To make the intentions of the Kyoto Protocol come true much more effort will have to go into reducing emissions and governments will have to take the lead.”

WWF has drawn up nine steps that governments need to take for Kyoto to be a success. These include more ambitious policies to ensure countries meet their Kyoto targets, particularly in the power sector, as well as making the right investment and policy decisions now to set the world on a downward emissions trend.

WWF also believes that the Kyoto Protocol must provide the basis for agreements beyond 2012, the end of the agreement�s current period.

“The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol starts a new market revolution - the carbon market,” said Morgan. “Gone are the days when companies and countries could emit CO2 and not think about it. From now on the switch from coal to clean power should become the norm.”

“During the next commitment period beginning in 2012 the Kyoto Club must be the driving force and set even more ambitious targets. The Kyoto Protocol must mark the beginning of the transformation needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, building upon its momentum and not the irresponsible approaches of the Bush administration. The European Union must proactively work with developing countries to create new alliances for change.”

WWF supports parties to the Kyoto Protocol, such as the EU, in increasing pressure on the private sector to further invest in clean energy. WWF’s recently launched PowerSwitch! campaign promotes energy efficiency and encourages electricity companies to make the switch from polluting fuels to renewable energy sources. The global power sector accounts for 37 per cent of all energy-related CO2 emissions.

Original press release: Kyoto � First of ten steps towards a CO2 free future (WWF)

Anyone buying a new car will be able to assess how environmentally friendly a vehicle is through new colour-coded labels, which were unveiled today by UK Transport Secretary Alistair Darling.

The fuel efficiency labels, which are similar to those currently displayed on fridges and other white goods, will help get across information to car buyers on how they can save money and help the environment.

All 42 car brands in the UK have signed up to the introduction of the voluntary labelling scheme, and the label is due to be in all UK car showrooms by 1 September.

As well as highlighting the fuel efficiency of every new car on sale, the labels also contain information on how much motorists can expect to pay in fuel bills in a typical year for a particular car, and whether the car qualifies for a reduction in Vehicle Excise Duty.

Speaking at the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership Annual Conference, Alistair Darling said:

“I am delighted to launch this vehicle labelling scheme today. These colour-coded labels will allow people to see at a glance just how fuel-efficient a particular vehicle is, and - critically - how it compares with other models. The labels can also display the VED (tax disc) band that the car is in, which will enable motorists to recognise instantly cars which benefit from lower rates.

“This shows the UK Government’s commitment to tackling climate change. It shows what can be done when Government, industry and other stakeholders work in partnership to achieve shared goals. The labels will send a clear message to motorists that they can make a real difference by choosing clean, fuel-efficient cars.”

Original press release: DARLING UNVEILS CLEANER VEHICLE LABELLING SCHEME (UK Department for Transport)

Researchers at a Scottish university have carried out what is likely to be the largest population survey of polar bears in Arctic Europe.

The estimate, provided by statisticians at the University of St Andrews, will help provide a clearer picture of numbers of the animal vulnerable to pollution and global warming.

The first large scale survey of polar bears in the Barents Sea region estimated 3,000 bears, which was at the low end of previous estimates of 3000 to 5000. In a new report by the WWF, scientists have warned that global warming could kill off polar bears within the next 20 years.

The Norwegian Polar Institute asked wildlife-surveying experts at St Andrews for help in a survey of the population of polar bears in Svalbard and Franz Josef Land. Tiago Marques, a PhD student at St Andrews, collaborated with the NPI, University of Oslo and Moscow’s VNII-PRIRODA in a five-week trip, surveying polar bears by helicopter.

Situated in Norway and Russia respectively, the surveyed areas represent huge nature reserves for polar bears. Of the estimated 25,000 polar bears worldwide, the Norway-Russian population represents around 12%. Polar bears are also found in the Arctic regions of Alaska, Canada, and Greenland. The Norwegian-Russian-UK study is the first large-scale scientific population count of polar bears to be carried out in the region.

The resulting estimate, the clearest picture ever provided, provides the authorities with a baseline of the polar bear population in that area, before the effects of climate change remove much of their ice-sheet habitat. Though the large number means safety in the short-term, the NPI say that climate change and organic pollutants may affect the population in the long run.

The polar bears living in this region wander all over Svalbard, along the ice edge, east to Franz Josef Land and northeast along the ice edge towards Russia. They feed mainly on seals though last year saw a spate of bears breaking into cabins in search of food. Because polar bears use ice-sheets as plinths when hunting seals, the possibility of the effects of global warming melting ice puts bears, especially pregnant females, in a vulnerable position. The WWF say that melting ice will leave polar bears with less time on the sea ice to hunt for food and build up their fat stores, and increased time on land where they must fast.

Norway has an obligation to monitor its polar bear population through the International Polar Bear Agreement of 1973 and The Norwegian Ministry of the Environment funded the research project.

In the NPI’s report, the Norwegian Minister of the Environment, Knut Arild Hareide, said: “This count gives us a good basis for the future management of this animal. We know that the polar bear is threatened by organic pollutants and changes in climate. By conducting regular counts we will be able to monitor effects and trends in the polar bear population in a way we never could before.”

The survey was done by two different helicopters -one operated from Longyearbyen, the main settlement of Svalbard, and another from a research vessel along the ice edge and around the islands of Franz Josef Land. The surveys took place over a 5-week period last year. While one total count of polar bears was completed in the smaller Norwegian areas, the team of researchers used specialist St Andrews software to determine an estimate for the whole Norwegian-Russian population. The method involves mathematical calculations based on the number of bears observed over large areas. Additional data was provided through satellite tagged bears previously tracked in Svalbard by the NPI. It is hoped that the survey will be repeated in a few years time.

Tiago is attached to CREEM (Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling) at St Andrews, which is the only research centre of its kind in the UK specialising in wildlife survey techniques and modelling population dynamics. CREEM developed the world-leading software, which is the only survey software of its kind and is used all over the world for a variety of animal and plant species.

The trip was a personal as well as professional success for the young Portuguese researcher -prior to the trip Tiago had a fear of flying, but the long trip by air and the resulting 5 weeks in a helicopter successfully cured any phobia.

Tiago said: “It was a privilege to integrate the NPI team and to be part of work of which the final goal should be to contribute to the possibility that in 100 years or so people can still admire these animals in the wild. With current environmental policies, that seems a difficult task at present. Personally it was the experience of a lifetime, and it was fantastic to feel that my background biology degree combined with a more recent acquired statistical knowledge could be used together to provide answers in this study.”

Original press release:
Polar Populations (University of St. Andrews)