The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in collaboration with the University of Colorado, has acquired an IBM Blue Gene supercomputer to simulate ocean, weather, and climate phenomena that impact agricultural output, heating oil prices and global warming.

The IBM eServer, Blue Gene, has a peak performance of 5.7 teraflops (TF), with a single full rack system. With a footprint of less than one square meter, the system delivers more than ten times the performance of other supercomputers now on the market while occupying less floor space. The National Science Foundation, NCAR’s primary sponsor, provided funding for the purchase of 1024 Blue Gene compute nodes.

“Climate change research is one policy-relevant field driving a need for more powerful computers to process complicated models of the Earth system,” says NCAR director Tim Killeen. “Improving weather forecasts, predicting toxic pollution flows, and space weather are other areas where faster, more efficient supercomputers like Blue Gene are essential for U.S. scientists to remain in the forefront of Earth science research.”

“For more than five years, IBM and NCAR have partnered to apply supercomputing power to NCAR’s most demanding climate modeling challenges. We are pleased to announce this most recent addition to their computational stable,” said Dave Turek, vice president, Deep Computing, IBM. “Insight gained from the use of the Blue Gene system will advance both the state of the art in geoscience modeling and, based on user feedback, in IBM’s supercomputer design efforts for the future. NCAR is indeed a valued IBM customer.”

NCAR’s Blue Gene system will accelerate fundamental research in global climate change, weather prediction, wildfires, geoturbulence and other critical areas.

About IBM

IBM is the world’s largest information technology company, with 80 years of leadership in helping businesses innovate. Drawing on resources from across IBM and key Business Partners, IBM offers a wide range of services, solutions and technologies that enable customers, large and small, to take full advantage of the new era of e-business. For more information about IBM, visit www.ibm.com.

About Power Architecture and Power.org

IBM develops and manufactures state-of-the-art semiconductor and interconnect technologies, including industry-leading Power Architecture microprocessors. In December of 2004, IBM and 14 companies announced the formation of Power.org, an open standards community dedicated to chips and systems that use Power Architecture technology. Power.org is a community dedicated to open hardware and collaborative innovation around the Power Architecture. The Power microprocessor is the heartbeat of devices and systems large and small, including the world’s best-known electronics brands, IBM supercomputers, and the high-performance IBM eServer and TotalStorage systems.

About NCAR

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under primary sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. The center conducts wide-ranging research in atmospheric chemistry, climate, weather, and solar-terrestrial interactions. It provides UCAR’s 68 members and other affiliates with state-of-the-art instrumentation, aircraft, and computer technology to advance the study of Earth’s atmosphere.

Original press release: NCAR Selects IBM Supercomputer (NCAR)

The biggest mass extinction in Earth history some 251 million years ago was preceded by elevated extinction rates before the main event and was followed by a delayed recovery that lasted for millions of years. New research by two University of Washington scientists suggests that a sharp decline in atmospheric oxygen levels was likely a major reason for both the elevated extinction rates and the very slow recovery.

Earth’s land at the time was still massed in a supercontinent called Pangea, and most of the land above sea level became uninhabitable because low oxygen made breathing too difficult for most organisms to survive, said Raymond Huey, a UW biology professor.

What’s more, in many cases nearby populations of the same species were cut off from each other because even low-altitude passes had insufficient oxygen to allow animals to cross from one valley to the next. That population fragmentation likely increased the extinction rate and slowed recovery following the mass extinction, Huey said.

“Biologists have previously thought about the physiological consequences of low oxygen levels during the late Permian period, but not about these biogeographical ones,” he said.

Atmospheric oxygen content, about 21 percent today, was a very rich 30 percent in the early Permian period. However, previous carbon-cycle modeling by Robert Berner at Yale University has calculated that atmospheric oxygen began plummeting soon after, reaching about 16 percent at the end of the Permian and bottoming out at less than 12 percent about 10 million years into the Triassic period.

“Oxygen dropped from its highest level to its lowest level ever in only 20 million years, which is quite rapid, and animals that once were able to cross mountain passes quite easily suddenly had their movements severely restricted,” Huey said.

He calculated that when the oxygen level hit 16 percent, breathing at sea level would have been like trying to breathe at the summit of a 9,200-foot mountain today. By the early Triassic period, sea-level oxygen content of less than 12 percent would have been the same as it is today in the thin air at 17,400 feet, higher than any permanent human habitation. That means even animals at sea level would have been oxygen challenged.

Huey and UW paleontologist Peter Ward are authors of a paper detailing the work, published in the April 15 edition of the journal Science. The work was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Astrobiology Institute.

Not only was atmospheric oxygen content dropping at the end of the Permian, the scientists said, but carbon dioxide levels were rising, leading to global climate warming.

“Declining oxygen and warming temperatures would have been doubly stressful for late Permian animals,” Huey said. “As the climate warms, body temperatures and metabolic rates go up. That means oxygen demand is going up, so animals would face an increased oxygen demand and a reduced supply. It would be like forcing athletes to exercise more but giving them less food. They’d be in trouble.”

Ward was lead author of a paper published in Science earlier this year presenting evidence that extinction rates of land vertebrates were elevated throughout the late Permian, likely because of climate change, and culminated in a mass extinction at the end of the Permian. The event, often called “the Great Dying,” was the greatest mass extinction in Earth’s history, killing 90 percent of all marine life and nearly three-quarters of land plants and animals.

Ward said paleontologists had previously assumed that Pangea was not just a supercontinent but also a “superhighway” on which species would have encountered few roadblocks while moving from one place to another.

However, it appears the greatly reduced oxygen actually created impassable barriers that affected the ability of animals to move and survive, he said.

“If this is true, then I think we have to go back and look at oxygen and its role in evolution and how different species developed,” Ward said. “You can go without food for a couple of weeks. You can go without water for a few days. How long can you go without oxygen, a couple of minutes? There’s nothing with a greater evolutionary effect than oxygen.”

Original press release: Low oxygen likely made ‘Great Dying’ worse, greatly delayed recovery (University of Washington News)

Thousands of megawatts of new renewable energy potential in Africa, Asia, South and Central America have been discovered by a pioneering project to map the solar and wind resource of 13 developing countries.

The multi-million dollar project, called the Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA), is proving that the potential for deploying solar panels and wind turbines in these countries is far greater than previously supposed.

First results from the project are being released here today in Washington D.C. at an international meeting of scientists and policy-makers organised by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), which is coordinating SWERA on behalf of more than 25 institutions around the world.

“In developing countries all over the world we have removed some of the uncertainty about the size and intensity of the solar and wind resource,” said Klaus Toepfer, UNEP’s Executive Director. “These countries need greatly expanded energy services to help in the fight against poverty and to power sustainable development. SWERA offers them the technical and policy assistance to capture the potential that renewable energy can offer,” he said.

Since its beginning in 2001 and with substantial support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the US$9.3 million SWERA project (http://swera.unep.net) has been developing a range of new information tools to stimulate renewable energy development, including detailed maps of wind and solar resources.

“As energy planners seek cleaner energy solutions using renewable energy technologies, the availability of reliable, accurate, and accessible solar and wind energy information is critical and can significantly accelerate the deployment of these technologies,” says Klaus Toepfer, UNEP’s Executive Director.

Toepfer cited the case of California, where the availability of good wind data greatly accelerated the development of windfarms and a global wind industry. Likewise, he says, SWERA’s aim is to support informed decision-making, develop energy policy based on science and technology, and increase investor confidence in renewable energy projects.

The SWERA team has assessed wind and solar energy resources using a range of data from satellites and ground-based instruments - often with surprising results. In Nicaragua, for example, SWERA assessments of wind resources demonstrated a much greater potential than the 200 megawatts (MW) estimated in the 1980s.

The results prompted the Nicaraguan National Assembly to pass the Decree on Promotion of Wind Energy of Nicaragua 2004 that gives wind generated electricity ‘first dispatch’, meaning it has the first priority over other options when fed into electricity grids. The US Trade and Development Agency and Inter-American Development Bank have subsequently launched wind energy feasibility studies in Nicaragua, and wind investment projects are now advancing with 40 MW planned in two projects and two more exploration licenses granted.

SWERA information is also providing solar resource information for a range of cooperative efforts in Nicaragua between groups such as the World Bank and GEF for projects focused on rural electrification. Six thousand (6000) solar PV systems, for example, are being installed in the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank rural electrification programs.

In Guatemala, wind estimates before SWERA were mostly unknown, but are now estimated at 7000 megawatts, based on SWERA products. The Guatemala Ministry of Energy has established, with support from SWERA, the Centre for Renewable Energy and Investment within the Ministry to carry out validation studies and identify sites for wind energy development.

In Sri Lanka, the SWERA assessment found a land wind power potential of about 26,000 MW representing more than ten times the country�s installed electrical capacity.

While an initial assessment in Ghana, reveals more than 2,000 MW of wind energy potential, mainly along the border with Togo. In Africa, this is quite a significant amount, as by some estimates, the continent needs just 40,000 MW of electricity to power its industrialization (see UNEP Governing Council, http://www.unep.org/gc/gc23/)

SWERA’s data collection and analysis network of international and national agencies is also creating a global archive of solar and wind energy resources and maps that is available on CDROM or through the website. Another important SWERA tool, the Geospatial Toolkit, allows wind and solar maps to be combined with electrical distribution grids and other information to provide high quality information that supports energy planning and policy development, while lowering the risk for renewable energy project developers and reducing project lead times.

Speaking from Washington D.C., Tom Hamlin, SWERA Project Manager, said the project is now under evaluation and will be seeking support to service requests from renewable energy development programmes in other developing countries.

“SWERA has clearly demonstrated that the modest of amounts needed to support renewable energy assessments can significantly change the way countries pursue their energy goals,” he said.

The countries where SWERA has carried out surveys to date are: Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Cuba, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, Kenya, Nepal, Nicaragua and Sri Lanka.

According to Klaus Toepfer, SWERA is a good example of international cooperation that can produce a range of positive environmental and social outcomes. “In the case of renewable energy,” he concludes, “knowledge is literally power”.

Original press release: Thousands of Megawatts of New Renewable Energy Potential (UNEP)

Brussels, Belgium - The agreement between the European Parliament and the European Council on a law aimed at improving the environmental performance of electricity-consuming products lacks ambition, says WWF.

This week the European Parliament is expected to back the text of the new “eco-design directive” applying to electricity-consuming products entering the European market, such as heating and lighting equipment, domestic and office appliances.

WWF is extremely concerned that the lack of minimum compulsory energy-efficiency standards may undermine the overall objective of the directive.

Since it is a “framework directive”, the European Commission will have to introduce implementing measures that lay down precise eco-design rules. However, voluntary agreements and self-regulatory initiatives can be adopted by the industry as an alternative to these measures.

“This is the biggest loophole of the new law,” said Dr Stephan Singer, Head of European Climate and Energy Policy Unit at WWF.

“Voluntary agreements and the rejection of an independent verification on their implementation is nothing more than an incentive for producers to avoid making the required innovations and is bad for climate protection. It is an invitation to cheat.”

WWF also notes with great concern that Member States who might be willing to phase out energy-wasting products and cut climate pollution earlier than others will only be able to do so after navigating considerable bureaucratic obstacles.

On a positive note, WWF appreciates that the agreement will make the Commission introduce early implementing measures to reduce energy waste for products with high stand-by losses, which waste the most power.

WWF also welcomes that the development of new electricity-consuming appliances in Europe should have as a reference international best practices.

“That is the minimum we could expect,” Singer added. “This directive is a key legislation for the EU to combat climate change and meet the commitments taken under the Kyoto Protocol.”

In Europe electricity production represents about one-third of CO2 emissions and electricity demand is continuously rising. According to the European Commission, by 2010 about 180 million tons of CO2, equal to all CO2 emissions in the Netherlands, could be prevented with new and energy-efficient appliances in Europe.

Original press release: New EU Directive on Electricity-using Products Lacks Ambition (WWF)

Australian research will potentially save the oil and gas industry billions of dollars by predicting the effects of future climate change on the seabed.

CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship and its partners have developed Sedsim, a high-performance computing program used to predict seabed changes over long periods of time. This project draws together CSIRO’s expertise in Petroleum Resources and Atmospheric Research, with international input from the US based Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Geoscience Australia (GA) and, in the early stages of the project, Stanford University.

Craig Roy, Director of Wealth from Oceans Flagship says, “This research is a world first, with the Flagship setting the pace globally in seabed modelling. We are providing the foundation capabilities for understanding how the seabed will change based on realistic climate change scenarios.”

The research team believes this could have a major impact in predicting the risk to billion dollar infrastructure. Project leader Dr Cedric Griffiths says, “We know the sediment that makes up the Australian seabed varies tremendously from region to region and will respond differently to future climate change. One of the main applications will be to assist in the appropriate design of oil and gas pipelines, in both low and high risk areas.

“If we can predict how the future movement of waves, currents and the seabed will affect pipelines, we can also help prevent fractures and spillages.”

Mr Roy adds, “Industry, particularly the oil and gas sector, will be the major beneficiaries of this research which has the potential to reduce capital expenditure of seabed pipelines, while reducing risks of over and under-engineering pipeline construction. Other beneficiaries will include industry regulators and the insurance sector.”

Sedsim seabed modelling brings together an advanced sediment transport model, capable of predicting sediment movement over decades, with advanced climate change models, specifically targeted at Australia.

“It can also be applied globally using a state of the art numeric model to predict sediment erosion, transport and deposition in a wide variety of sedimentary environments, including shallow to deep marine. The program can model the way sediment responds to waves, current and tidal effects,” Dr Griffiths says.

This work will shed light on how the seabed characteristics may change over the next 50 years, and is aligned closely with the National Oceans Office’s Regional Marine Planning activities. An initial simulation of Australia’s southeast has been completed at two kilometre resolution, each month for the next 50 years.

Dr Griffiths says “There are currently about 1000km of offshore pipeline in Australia’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and another 1000km of pipeline proposed to be laid in Australian and PNG waters in coming years. In the next decade, it is predicted that up to $10 billion may be spent on thousands of kilometres of offshore pipelines worldwide. Substantial environmental and costs savings could be made if these pipelines can be designed to suit both the present sub-sea environment and the future seabed conditions.”

Original press release: Global First for Australian Ocean-bed Research (CSIRO)

Global warming is real, dangerous and ignored at great risk to the planet, a leading environmentalist told an audience of about 250 at last week’s inaugural MIT Environmental Fellows Invitational Lecture.

Professor James Gustave Speth, Dean of Yale University’s School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, urged the scientific community to make its case to the public, which remains unconvinced of the crisis despite decades of first-rate science and policy analysis, he said.

Temperatures at the Arctic are already climbing, and there will be “irreparable damage in the decades ahead due to our negligence” in addressing climate change. U.S. policy makers and citizens must be spurred into action, Speth said in his talk, “Some Say by Fire: Climate Change and the American Response,” held Wednesday, April 6.

“If I had a hundred million dollars,” Speth said, “I think I’d put almost every penny of it into a public service advertising campaign; because we’ve got to reach lots of people quickly with this issue.”

Speth is a founder of the World Resources Institute, co-founder of the Natural Resources Defense Council and former advisor to Presidents Carter and Clinton. His lecture was sponsored by the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment.

Climate-change research results and forecasts appear repeatedly in the scientific literature–some information “startling in its significance”–but Speth said good climate science rarely reaches the public in a “forceful and meaningful way.” Indeed, the mainstream American press persists in portraying global change as controversial and uncertain, he said.

There is now clear consensus among scientists that Earth’s climate is being affected by the greenhouse gases generated by human activities. “We’ve seen these credible forecasts and credible warnings coming from the scientific community for the better part of three decades,” Speth said. “But the influence of all the good science on policy and action has been puny compared with the need.”

Noting MIT’s phenomenal capacity to help tackle this critical global problem, Speth called for scientists at MIT and elsewhere to actively engage in public policy debates and issues. “Only the scientific community has the credibility to take the climate issue to the public and to the politicians,” he said.

Given the lack of action at the federal level, he called for building a broad network of civic, scientific, environmental, religious, business and other communities to demand action and to take concrete steps to reduce emissions.

Original press release: Scientists Urged to Spread Word on Global Warming (MIT)