This image was captured by MODIS on the Terra satellite on July 16, 2005. Currently the National Hurricane Center is predicting the following movement for Emily: Emily is currently over the Yucatan Peninsula and is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico later today. A hurricane watch remains in effect from Cabo Rojo, Mexico northward to Baffin Bay, Texas. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetuman nortward to Cabo Catouche, Mexico, westward and southward to Campeche including Cozumel and the Islas Mujeres

Full High Resolution Image: Hurricane Emily (NASA)

Scientists face difficult challenges in predicting and understanding how much our climate is changing. When it comes to gases that trap heat in our atmosphere, called greenhouse gases (GHGs), scientists typically look at how much of the gases exist in the atmosphere.

However, Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, believes we need to look at the GHGs when they are emitted at Earth’s surface, instead of looking at the GHGs themselves after they have been mixed into the atmosphere. “The gas molecules undergo chemical changes and once they do, looking at them after they’ve mixed and changed in the atmosphere doesn’t give an accurate picture of their effect,” Shindell said. “For example, the amount of methane in the atmosphere is affected by pollutants that change methane’s chemistry, and it doesn’t reflect the effects of methane on other greenhouse gases,” said Shindell, “so it’s not directly related to emissions, which are what we set policies for.”

Chemically reactive GHGs include methane and ozone (carbon dioxide, the most important GHG, is largely unreactive). Once methane and the molecules that create ozone are released into the air by both natural and human-induced sources, these gases mix and react together, which transforms their compositions. When gases are altered, their contribution to the greenhouse warming effect also shifts. So, the true effect of a single GHG emission on climate becomes very hard to single out.

Some of the major investigations into the state of our warming planet come from a series of reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment. These reports involved the work of hundreds of climate experts. The reports rely on measurements of greenhouse gases as they exist in the atmosphere, after they may have mixed with other gases. In other words, the findings in the report do not reflect the quantities that were actually emitted.

Shindell finds there are advantages to measuring emissions of greenhouse gases and isolating their impacts, as opposed to analyzing them after they have mixed in the atmosphere. His study on the subject was recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In the study, when the individual effects of each gas on global warming were added together, the total was within 10 percent of the impacts of all the gases mixed together. The small difference in the two amounts was a sign to Shindell that little error was introduced by separating the emissions from one another.

After isolating each greenhouse gas and calculating the impact of each emission on our climate with a computer model, Shindell and his colleagues found some striking differences in how much these gases contribute overall to climate change.

The leading greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons. These gases are called �well mixed� greenhouse gases because of their long lifetimes of a decade or more, which allows them to disperse evenly around the atmosphere. They are emitted from both man-made and natural sources. Ozone in the lower atmosphere, called tropospheric ozone, a major component of polluted air or smog that is damaging to human and ecosystem health, also has greenhouse warming effects. In the upper atmosphere, ozone protects life on Earth from the sun�s harmful ultraviolet rays.

According to new calculations, the impacts of methane on climate warming may be double the standard amount attributed to the gas. The new interpretations reveal methane emissions may account for a third of the climate warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases between the 1750s and today. The IPCC report, which calculates methane�s affects once it exists in the atmosphere, states that methane increases in our atmosphere account for only about one sixth of the total effect of well-mixed greenhouse gases on warming.

Part of the reason the new calculations give a larger effect is that they include the sizeable impact of methane emissions on tropospheric ozone since the industrial revolution. Tropospheric ozone is not directly emitted, but is instead formed chemically from methane, other hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. The IPCC report includes the effects of tropospheric ozone increases on climate, but it is not attributed to particular sources. By categorizing the climate effects according to emissions, Shindell and colleagues found the total effects of methane emissions are substantially larger. In other words, the true source of some of the warming that is normally attributed to tropospheric ozone is really due to methane that leads to increased abundance of tropospheric ozone. According to the study, the effects of other pollutants were relatively minor. Nitrogen oxide emissions can even lead to cooling by fostering chemical reactions that destroy methane. This is partly why estimates based on the amount of methane in the atmosphere give the gas a smaller contribution to climate change.

Molecule for molecule, Methane is 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas, but CO2 is much more abundant than methane and the predicted growth rate is far greater. Since 1750, methane concentrations in the atmosphere have more than doubled, though the rate of increase has slowed during the 1980-90s, and researchers don�t understand why. Controlling methane could reap a big bang for the buck. Another bonus of this perspective is that in order to manage greenhouse gases, policy decisions must focus on cutting emissions, because that’s where humans have some control.

“If we control methane, which the U.S. is already starting to do, then we are likely to mitigate global warming more than one would have thought, so that’s a very positive outcome,” Shindell said. “Control of methane emissions turns out to be a more powerful lever to control global warming than would be anticipated.”

Sources of methane include natural sources like wetlands, gas hydrates in the ocean floor, permafrost, termites, oceans, freshwater bodies, and non-wetland soils. Fossil fuels, cattle, landfills and rice paddies are the main human-related sources. Previous studies have shown that new rice harvesting techniques can significantly reduce methane emissions and increase yields.

Original press release: Methane’s Impacts on Climate Change May Be Twice Previous Estimates (NASA)

Spring thaw in the Northern Hemisphere was monitored by a new set of eyes this year — an Earth-orbiting NASA spacecraft carrying a new version of software trained to recognize and distinguish snow, ice, and water from space.

Using this software, the Space Technology 6 Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment autonomously tracked changes in the cryosphere, the section of Earth that is frozen, and relayed the information and images back to scientists.

The software, developed by engineers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., controls the Earth Observing-1 spacecraft. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md, manages the satellite. The software has taken more than 1,500 images of frozen lakes in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Quebec, Tibet and the Italian Alps, along with sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic bays.

While other spacecraft only capture images when they receive explicit commands to do so, for the last year Earth Observing-1 has been making its own decisions. Based on general guidelines from scientists, the spacecraft automatically tracks events such as volcano eruptions, floods and ice formation. The most recent software upgrade allows the spacecraft to accurately recognize cryosphere changes such as ice melting.

Previously, scientists spent several months developing software for Earth Observing-1 to detect changes in snow, water and ice. The new software is capable of learning by itself, and it took only a few hours for scientists to train it to recognize cryosphere changes. In fact, the new software has learned to classify the images so well that scientists plan to use it for the remainder of the mission.

“This new software is capable of a rudimentary form of learning, much the way a child learns the names of new objects,” said Dominic Mazzoni, the JPL computer scientist who developed the software. “Instead of programming the software using a complicated series of commands and mathematical equations, scientists play the role of a teacher, repeatedly showing the computer different images and giving feedback until it has correctly learned to tell them apart.”

On Earth Observing-1, the software searches for specific cryospheric events and reprograms the spacecraft to capture additional images of the event.

“The software has exceeded all of our expectations,” said Dr. Steve Chien, JPL principal investigator for the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment. “We have demonstrated that a spacecraft can operate autonomously, and the software has taken literally hundreds of images without ground intervention.”

Similar software has been used to distinguish between different types of clouds in images captured by JPL’s Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer, an instrument on NASA’s Terra spacecraft. Automatically identifying types of clouds from space will help scientists better understand Earth’s global energy balance and predict future climate trends.

Future versions of the software also might be used to track dust storms on Mars, search for ice volcanoes on Jupiter�s moon Europa, and monitor activity on Jupiter’s volcanically active moon Io. NASA’s New Millennium Program developed both the satellite and the software. The program is responsible for testing new technologies in space.

Original press release: Software Learns to Recognize Spring Thaw (NASA)

Australia is home to one of the dirtiest power plants in the world: 40-year-old Hazelwood power station in Latrobe Valley, Victoria, spews out an astonishing 1.58 million tons of CO2 every month.

Yet deliberations are currently being held to decide whether to extend the life of Australia’s most polluting power station to 2031. Hazelwood would be allowed to keep polluting for another 22 years, as decommissioning was planned for 2009.

WWF analysis has revealed that Hazelwood is the dirtiest plant of its scale on a list of power stations operating in leading industrialised countries. It produces more CO2 per unit of electricity than the dirtiest plants in countries like the United States, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan.

In many ways Australia can be regarded as a modern country that plays a leading role among industrialised nations but not when it comes to electricity generation,� says Australian PowerSwitch! campaigner Anna Reynolds.

Hazelwood - built in 1964 using technology from the 1950s � is a perfect example. Despite a $ 500 million upgrade over the past eight years, climate pollution from the plant increased by 2.7% between 1998 and 2004.

But the Victorian government still has not ruled out that more CO2 will be pouring out of Hazelwood’s dirty smokestacks. A lifetime extension of 22 years would cause additional pollution of about 340 million tons of CO2 - the equivalent of putting an extra eight million new cars on the road.

This stands in sharp contrast to the government’s intention to reduce Victoria�s greenhouse gas emissions by up to 8.3 megatons a year by 2012.

Victoria’s 5-star energy efficient homes standard is expected to save 200,000 tonnes of greenhouse gasses per annum within five years. Just five days of Hazelwood’s operations would cancel that benefit, says Anna Reynolds.

According to WWF research, Australia’s future energy can be met from cleaner energy sources already available and reductions in demand rather than increases in highly polluting sources such as brown coal. The PowerSwitch! from coal to clean is possible.

Today Australia is one of the most coal-dependent countries on Earth, after Poland and South Africa. 78 per cent of Australia’s electricity is generated in coal-fired power stations like Hazelwood, producing tons of CO2 emissions every minute.

CO2 is building up in the atmosphere, causing a dramatic increase in the Earth’s temperature. This greenhouse gas pollution from coal power stations is driving global warming, says Anna Reynolds.

Climate Action Network Australia, a WWF partner organisation, has set up an action to urge Steve Bracks, Premier of Victoria, to decide against the Hazelwood extension.

PowerSwitch! activists are asked to support the fight for a switch from coal to clean in Victoria and send a fax to Premier Bracks.

Original press release: No extension for one of the world�s biggest polluters! (WWF)

Bacteria could hold the key to help recover oil from Australia’s vast offshore deposits.

Microbes feeding on highly viscous oils can produce chemical changes to allow the residual oils to be extracted.

Presenting at the Oceans and the World’s Future conference in Cairns this week, Craig Roy from CSIRO’s Wealth from Oceans Flagship, outlined some of the technologies under development in the Flagship which have potential applications for ocean-based industries.

“Microbially enhanced oil recovery will give us access to the thicker oils which at present cannot be extracted - just one example of the application of frontier technologies,” he said.

“Another example includes the extraction of offshore oil and gas by using sub-sea and down-hole technologies. This large-scale research has strong industry support and involvement. We could see the traditional platforms and surface facilities become structures of the past.”

Further oceans research is developing the Barcode of Life - a method of fish species identification based on DNA sequencing. This technology has wide ranging applications, from identifying whole fish, fins, canned products and fish eggs to historical specimens held in museums. This technology can identify accurately threatened and endangered species and possible new species.

According to Mr Roy, the Oceans and the World’s Future conference is an important occasion to plan for further discovery and potential uses of our oceans and in a responsible manner.

“Our oceans are poorly understood and their value to Australia is immense - their potential to reshape the prosperity of Australia is undeniable,” he said.

“But we are still in the discovery mode with much of our ocean knowledge, as only a relatively small amount of our oceans have been charted. We are still discovering new fauna and flora and mapping much of the ocean beds.”

CSIRO Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship is focused on delivering ocean-based economic, social and environmental wealth to the nation through scientific, research and industry partnerships.

Original press release: Microbes join oil industry (CSIRO)

Companies who use the Earth’s natural resources more wisely are likely to see bigger profits and enjoy more stable and predictable businesses, a new report published today argues.

Many of the planet’s ecosystems such as fisheries, forests and water supplies are in decline. This could in as little as five years, trigger increased costs for companies who rely directly and in-directly on nature-based services.

Therefore companies who manage ecosystems more prudently and who invest in their care and conservation are likely to enjoy multiple benefits including enhanced profits, improved reputations among consumers and new business opportunities.

They will also be better placed to respond to sudden shocks including higher oil prices, a dramatic fall in the availability of raw materials or greener rules, regulations and laws that may be in the pipe-line.

Meanwhile, research and development in cleaner and greener technologies will increasingly be needed to reduce ecosystem damage and to better use nature’s goods and services.

Investment in new technology is likely to pay dividends and spawn new products and businesses as governments, local authorities, shareholders and consumers demand higher standards and greater accountability.

These are among the findings of the latest report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment entitled Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Opportunities and Challenges for Business and Industry.

Klaus Toepfer, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) which has played a key role in the Assessment and its spin off reports, said: In the past the goods and services delivered by nature have all too often been seen as free and available at little or no cost. This report makes it clear that this must and will change as these resources become increasingly scarce and society demands higher standards of environmental care.

Much of the Earth’s remaining natural capital, including genetic diversity up to the carbon storage of greenhouse gases and the materials and services underpinning tourism and developments in the food, pharmaceuticals and tourism industries are found in developing countries. For example the carbon absorption and storage capacity of the world’s tropical forests are now conservatively estimated to be worth $60 billion a year. We need imaginative financial mechanisms and incentives to give these resources real value and to encourage re-investment in the natural capital we have already over-used, he said.

In doing so we will not only conserve the life support systems upon which current and future generations depend, but also provide new income flows to overcome poverty and help us meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals whose implementation will be reviewed at the 2005 World Summit in New York in September, said Mr Toepfer.

Fortunately, many corporations are already aware of this and are grappling with these fundamental issues through initiatives such as the UN Secretary-General’s Global Compact. New markets, such as those that trade carbon and access and benefit sharing of genetic resources, are also developing. And many governments are drawing up regulations and legislation to steer firms onto a more resource efficient path, he said.

However, given the scale of environmental damage and the urgency to act much, much more needs to be done. I hope this report, the work of over 1,300 experts including representatives of business, will be that wake up call, said Mr Toepfer.

The overall Millennium Ecosystem Assessment has concluded that two thirds of the world’s ecosystems ranging from wetlands and coastal areas to forests and soils are either degraded or being managed unsustainably.

The new spin off report argues that this has important ramifications for business and industry.

Some key Points from the Report

Business and industry rely on ecosystems such as forests, grasslands, mangroves, rivers, lakes and the like for a variety of services including water and air purification, storage of greenhouse gases, nursery grounds for fish, pollination of crops, raw materials and new products.

The impact of ecosystem degradation will be felt over the short term, the next five years, and the longer term, the next 50 years.

Changes in ecosystems are increasing the likelihood of surprises in the future such as a collapse of previously reliable sources of food, pest outbreaks, catastrophic floods or the disappearance of economically valuable species.

The net value or benefit of many ecosystems is higher when they are intact than when they are damaged or converted to other uses. For example, an intact wetland in a northern country is worth nearly $6,000 a hectare. Drained and changed for intensive agriculture, the value falls to just over $2,000 a hectare.

Intact mangroves are worth $1,000 a hectare. Cleared and converted for shrimp farms, the value falls to about $200 a hectare.

Water scarcity is probably of greatest importance to businesses and will, like changes in the oil supply, impact companies globally. Up to a fifth of freshwater use currently exceeds long-term sustainable supply and is being met by water transfers or unsustainable mining of groundwater.

Companies will have to make decisions about where they locate operations based on water supply. Meanwhile, businesses that find new and more efficient ways of recycling and using water will fare better.

Climate change presents significant threats and opportunities for business and industry in terms of the impact on ecosystems and their goods and services and the chances to develop and sell profitable low carbon technologies.

Overexploitation of the marine environment is already impacting some businesses as a result of lower catches of fish for food and animal feed. More are likely to suffer as a result of pollution triggering disease outbreaks and blooms or dead zones in the world’s oceans and seas.

The decline in fish stocks has triggered a growth in farmed fish and products such as shrimp. Increasing consumer awareness of the environmental impacts of farmed fish and seafood is now favouring those companies with more sustainable and less environmentally damaging practices.

Companies who continue to pollute and damage ecosystems may find themselves squeezed out of profitable locations by other industries. The report cites the case of tourism.

With tourism becoming the world’s largest employer and an important economic factor in developing countries, native forestlands, coral reefs and other natural resources will be increasingly perceived as vital business assets of many private companies, it says.

Companies who fail to factor in the business risk of declining ecosystems and the business opportunity of conserving them may find that raising finance and insurance becomes harder and more expensive.

Environmental risk and the importance of ecosystems to a corporation’s bottom line are increasingly being recognised by fund managers. This is underscored in numerous recent surveys and reports including ones by UNEP’s Finance Initiative endorsed by a wide range of financial institutions.

What Business Leaders are Saying

Antony Burgmans, chairman, Unilever N.V: The solutions of the past are often not robust enough under the conditions of global change and need to be re-thought and re-implemented.

Steve Percy, retired Chief Executive Officer of BP America and co-chair of the new report: All businesses will be more competitive if they create their strategies with the current and projected condition of ecosystems and ecosystem services in mind, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment provides an excellent source of information on the trends and linkages important to business.

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development: Business cannot function if ecosystems and the services they deliver like water, biodiversity, fiber, food and climate are degraded or out of balance.

Jeffrey Immelt, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of General Electric Company: We will focus our unique energy, technology and manufacturing, and infrastructure capabilities to develop tomorrow’s solutions such as solar energy, hybrid locomotives, fuel cells, lower-emission aircraft engines, lighter and stronger materials, efficient lighting, and water purification technology.

Original press release: Natural Capital Investment or Higher Costs and Lower Profits (UNEP)